With home advantage in their favour, it feels reasonable to back Braga to edge this contest. However, with 90 minutes now in their legs, we are backing Sheriff to net the goal that may put this tie beyond the reach of their higher-profile opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 47.95%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Sheriff Tiraspol had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Sheriff Tiraspol win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
