Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.

Result
Peterborough United	Draw	Derby County
43.6%	27%	29.39%

Both teams to score 49.07%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.14%

55.86%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.02%

76.98%

Peterborough United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.57%

25.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.75%

60.24%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.81%

34.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.11%

70.88%

Score Analysis

Peterborough United 43.6%

Derby County 29.39%

Draw 27%

Peterborough United	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 8.15% 3-1 @ 3.99% 3-0 @ 3.72% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.3% Total : 43.6%	1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.69% 2-2 @ 4.69% Other @ 0.84% Total : 27%	0-1 @ 9.33% 1-2 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 5.01% 1-3 @ 2.45% 0-3 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.39%