SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | Hebei | 5 | -10 | 0 |
| 18 | Guangzhou City | 5 | -11 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Dalian Pro | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Changchun Yatai | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Shanghai Port | 5 | -1 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 50.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Guangzhou City win it was 1-0 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Changchun Yatai would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
24.68% ( 0.03) | 24.93% ( 0.01) | 50.39% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.73% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.03) | 50.68% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( -0.03) | 72.58% ( 0.03) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.76% ( 0.01) | 35.23% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.01% ( 0.01) | 71.99% ( -0.01) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.87% ( -0.03) | 20.12% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.62% ( -0.05) | 52.38% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
| 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.18% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.15% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.72% 3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0)Other @ 2.03% Total : 24.68% | 1-1 @ 11.85% 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.92% | 0-1 @ 11.36% 1-2 @ 9.51% ( -0)0-2 @ 9.11% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.08% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.87% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.04% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.95% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 50.38% |
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