SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Guangzhou City | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Hebei | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wuhan | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Henan Songshan Longmen | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Shanghai Shenhua | 3 | 3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan Songshan Longmen win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan Songshan Longmen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 1-0 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Henan Songshan Longmen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
33.22% ( -0.04) | 27.03% ( 0) | 39.75% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.43% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.19% ( -0) | 54.81% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.89% ( -0) | 76.12% ( 0.01) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.06% ( -0.03) | 30.94% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.77% ( -0.03) | 67.23% ( 0.03) |
| Henan Songshan Longmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.02% ( 0.02) | 26.98% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.67% ( 0.02) | 62.33% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
| 1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.94% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0)Other @ 3.04% Total : 33.22% | 1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 8.35% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 10.93% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.16% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.67% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 39.74% |
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