Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou Evergrande win with a probability of 53.07%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 24.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou Evergrande win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 2-1 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou Evergrande would win this match.