Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Anguilla had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Anguilla win was 0-1 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.
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