Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 1-0 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.