Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Arenteiro had a probability of 14.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.38%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Arenteiro win it was 1-0 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
