It has not been easy to predict Atletico Madrid this season, but this one feels like too big a game for Diego Simeone's men to lose.
Their visitors are notoriously poor travellers, aside from one shock victory, and should not cause too many problems for Los Colchoneros as they look to get back on the winning trail after a tough couple of weeks.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 67.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 12.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.79%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.64%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
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