Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 61.65%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Merida AD had a probability of 15.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.75%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Merida AD win it was 1-0 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Alaves in this match.
