Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 51.54%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Villarreal II had a probability of 22.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Villarreal II win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
-0.56) 
0.59) 
