Despite it appearing a mismatch on paper, Logrones have competed well in this competition in recent years and kept the score down to just 1-0 the last time they met Valencia four years ago.
The visitors should have no difficulty in sweeping their opponents aside though and putting their name in the hat for the second round, especially after showing some fine recent form on the league front of late.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a UD Logrones win with a probability of 36.93%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a UD Logrones win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
-0.6) 
0.41) 
