Valencia are certainly good enough to claim a positive result on Sunday, and it would not be a surprise to see a draw here. Athletic have been strong at home this season, though, and we are expecting Valverde's side to navigate their way to what would be an important three points this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 51.9%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
-0.75) 
0.35) 
