Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (10.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.