Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 85.33%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Carabobo had a probability of 3.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (15.1%) and 1-0 (13.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (5.07%), while for a Carabobo win it was 0-1 (1.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
0.36) 
-0.18) 
