Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
0.18) 
-0.25) 
