Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Cerro Porteno win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.