SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Magallanes had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Magallanes win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Magallanes |
48.32% ( -0.17) | 25.32% ( -0) | 26.36% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.09% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.03% ( 0.14) | 50.97% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.16% ( 0.12) | 72.84% ( -0.13) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.89% ( -0.02) | 21.11% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.05% ( -0.03) | 53.95% ( 0.02) |
| Magallanes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.03% ( 0.22) | 33.97% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.35% ( 0.23) | 70.65% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Magallanes |
| 1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 48.31% | 1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.28% Total : 26.36% |
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