Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Magallanes had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Magallanes win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.17) 
