SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 51.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| El Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
51.56% ( 1.33) | 25.67% ( -0.27) | 22.77% ( -1.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.53% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.81% ( 0.09) | 55.19% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.58% ( 0.07) | 76.43% ( -0.07) |
| El Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.56% ( 0.61) | 21.45% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.54% ( 0.93) | 54.47% ( -0.92) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.51% ( -0.95) | 39.5% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.82% ( -0.9) | 76.19% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| El Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
| 1-0 @ 13.04% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.33)2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.17% Total : 51.56% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.4% Total : 22.77% |
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