Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a 9 de Octubre win with a probability of 51.68%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a 9 de Octubre win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that 9 de Octubre would win this match.
