Tuesday's game sees two sides at opposite ends of the group standings go head to head with Guairena needing a win to progress to the next round. However, Independiente Medellin have been solid on home turf, losing just once in their last 15 outings since the turn of the year. We predict they will make use of their home advantage once again and do just enough to force a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Guairena had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.07%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Guairena win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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