SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Guairena had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.07%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Guairena win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Guairena |
39.87% ( -0.01) | 23.75% ( 0.01) | 36.38% |
| Both teams to score 62.33% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.28% ( -0.02) | 39.72% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.93% ( -0.02) | 62.07% ( 0.02) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.8% ( -0.01) | 20.2% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.5% ( -0.02) | 52.5% ( 0.02) |
| Guairena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.1% ( -0.01) | 21.9% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.85% ( -0.02) | 55.15% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Guairena |
| 2-1 @ 8.59% 1-0 @ 7.07% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.66% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.58% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.03% Total : 39.87% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.72% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.1% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.57% 2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.58% Total : 36.38% |
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