SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 45.56%. A win for El Nacional had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest El Nacional win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | El Nacional |
45.56% ( 0.19) | 26.69% ( 0.24) | 27.75% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 49.03% ( -0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.55% ( -1.13) | 55.45% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.36% ( -0.93) | 76.64% ( 0.94) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.73% ( -0.4) | 24.27% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.36% ( -0.58) | 58.64% ( 0.58) |
| El Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.75% ( -0.94) | 35.25% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28% ( -0.99) | 72.01% ( 1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | El Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.11% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.22% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 45.55% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.37)2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.69% | 0-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.07% Total : 27.75% |
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