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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 2, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Nublense
2 - 1
Aucas

Rubio (79'), Vilches (90+1')
Reyes (58'), Rubio (71'), Caroca (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Otero (24')
Castillo (45+2'), Angel (60')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nublense and Aucas.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Flamengo 2-0 Nublense
Thursday, April 20 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Racing 3-2 Aucas
Thursday, April 20 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nublense win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for Aucas had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nublense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Aucas win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nublense would win this match.

Result
NublenseDrawAucas
45.42% (0.232 0.23) 25.24% (-0.044 -0.04) 29.33% (-0.194 -0.19)
Both teams to score 54.47% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.14% (0.079000000000001 0.08)48.85% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.05% (0.071999999999999 0.07)70.95% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Nublense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.48% (0.137 0.14)21.51% (-0.142 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.43% (0.214 0.21)54.57% (-0.21899999999999 -0.22)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.4% (-0.09899999999999 -0.1)30.6% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.17% (-0.114 -0.11)66.83% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Nublense 45.42%
    Aucas 29.33%
    Draw 25.24%
NublenseDrawAucas
1-0 @ 10.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.2% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.77% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.71% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.98% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.79% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.81% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.021 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 45.42%
1-1 @ 11.97% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.58% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.45% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.24%
0-1 @ 7.8% (-0.047 -0.05)
1-2 @ 7.09% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 4.62% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.8% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.82% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 29.33%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Flamengo 2-0 Nublense
Thursday, April 20 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nublense 0-2 Racing
Thursday, April 6 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Union La Calera 2-1 Nublense
Wednesday, March 16 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nublense 0-0 Union La Calera
Wednesday, March 9 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Racing 3-2 Aucas
Thursday, April 20 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 2-1 Flamengo
Wednesday, April 5 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 4-0 Aucas
Friday, May 28 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Aucas 3-0 Metropolitanos
Thursday, May 20 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Aucas 2-1 Melgar
Friday, May 14 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Metropolitanos 3-2 Aucas
Tuesday, May 4 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana


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