Aucas
2 - 1
Melgar

Vega (56'), Carerra (78')
Alexander Mina Caicedo (42'), Fydriszewski (48'), Viotti (67'), Matias Pizzorno Bracco (69')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Cuesta (7')
Arias (71'), Cuesta (80'), De Dios Orzan (84')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Match Stats

Player Stats

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Aucas and Melgar.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 38.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.91%) and 2-0 (4.99%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aucas in this match.

Result
Aucas	Draw	Melgar
39.05%	22.83%	38.12%

Both teams to score 66.06%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.07%

34.93%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.09%

56.91%

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.48%

18.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.26%

49.74%

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.07%

18.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.56%

50.44%

Score Analysis

Aucas 39.05%

Melgar 38.12%

Draw 22.83%

Aucas	Draw	Melgar
2-1 @ 8.3% 1-0 @ 5.91% 2-0 @ 4.99% 3-1 @ 4.67% 3-2 @ 3.88% 3-0 @ 2.8% 4-1 @ 1.97% 4-2 @ 1.64% 4-0 @ 1.18% 4-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.81% Total : 39.05%	1-1 @ 9.84% 2-2 @ 6.91% 0-0 @ 3.51% 3-3 @ 2.15% Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.83%	1-2 @ 8.19% 0-1 @ 5.83% 0-2 @ 4.86% 1-3 @ 4.54% 2-3 @ 3.83% 0-3 @ 2.69% 1-4 @ 1.89% 2-4 @ 1.59% 0-4 @ 1.12% Other @ 3.57% Total : 38.12%