Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 65.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 13.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.89%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.