Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Guairena had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Guairena win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
