Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.