Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 45.7%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 29.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
