SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 48.03%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Emelec | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
| 48.03% | 24.95% | 27.02% |
| Both teams to score 53.78% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.92% | 71.08% |
| Emelec Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.57% | 20.43% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.12% | 52.88% |
| Deportes Tolima Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.59% | 32.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.08% | 68.92% |
| Score Analysis |
| Emelec | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
| 1-0 @ 10.51% 2-1 @ 9.41% 2-0 @ 8.35% 3-1 @ 4.98% 3-0 @ 4.42% 3-2 @ 2.81% 4-1 @ 1.98% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.71% Total : 48.02% | 1-1 @ 11.84% 0-0 @ 6.62% 2-2 @ 5.3% 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.94% | 0-1 @ 7.46% 1-2 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.2% 1-3 @ 2.51% 2-3 @ 1.99% 0-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.6% Total : 27.02% |
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