Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 48.03%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.
