Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guabira win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guabira win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-2 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.