Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
