Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 56.69%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 18.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.59%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.