Melgar
2 - 0
Aucas

Cuesta (21' pen., 53')
Arias (9'), Felix Lujan Feijoo (30')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Joel Mejia Montero (17'), Viotti (85')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Match Stats

Player Stats

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Melgar and Aucas.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Aucas had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Aucas win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Aucas
43.89%	23.72%	32.39%

Both teams to score 61.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.44%

40.55%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.06%

62.93%

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.22%

18.78%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.81%

50.18%

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.52%

24.48%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.07%

58.93%

Score Analysis

Melgar 43.89%

Aucas 32.39%

Draw 23.71%

Melgar	Draw	Aucas
2-1 @ 9.05% 1-0 @ 7.69% 2-0 @ 6.43% 3-1 @ 5.04% 3-0 @ 3.58% 3-2 @ 3.55% 4-1 @ 2.11% 4-0 @ 1.5% 4-2 @ 1.48% Other @ 3.45% Total : 43.89%	1-1 @ 10.81% 2-2 @ 6.37% 0-0 @ 4.6% 3-3 @ 1.67% Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.71%	1-2 @ 7.61% 0-1 @ 6.47% 0-2 @ 4.55% 1-3 @ 3.57% 2-3 @ 2.99% 0-3 @ 2.14% 1-4 @ 1.26% 2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.39%