Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Racing Club had a probability of 34.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Racing Club win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
