SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Avai | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Cuiaba | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Atletico Goianiense | 10 | -5 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Cuiaba |
52.45% ( 0.03) | 26.11% ( -0.03) | 21.44% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 44.79% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.04% ( 0.12) | 57.96% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.34% ( 0.09) | 78.66% ( -0.09) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.79% ( 0.06) | 22.21% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.37% ( 0.1) | 55.63% ( -0.1) |
| Cuiaba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.58% ( 0.07) | 42.42% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.2% ( 0.06) | 78.8% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melgar | Draw | Cuiaba |
| 1-0 @ 14.17% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.83% Total : 52.44% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.47% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.08% Total : 21.44% |
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