It seems unlikely that Racing Club will lose to River Plate in the other fixture in this group on Thursday, but Melgar will make sure that they do their part so they can capitalise on any potential slip-up from the leaders.
This encounter is likely to be a close affair, but Melgar are in better form overall which should give them the edge in this one, especially being on home soil also.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.