Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
