Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.75%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 21.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
