The Peruvians have shown they can keep pace with an experienced group like Corinthians, and Los Merengues should feel comfortable given their current home form, but we have a hard time seeing them create much when in possession.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 62.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 13.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.89%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
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