SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 59.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universitario in this match.
| Result | ||
| Universitario | Draw | Gimnasia |
59.34% ( -0.09) | 23.56% ( 0.04) | 17.1% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.11% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.05% ( -0.08) | 53.95% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.6% ( -0.07) | 75.39% ( 0.07) |
| Universitario Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.08% ( -0.06) | 17.91% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.28% ( -0.11) | 48.72% ( 0.11) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.95% ( 0.02) | 45.05% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.03% ( 0.01) | 80.97% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Universitario | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 13.87% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.18% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 59.33% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.79% Other @ 0.63% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.5% Total : 17.1% |
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