Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 37.95%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.