Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
