Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 45.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 26.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.91%) and 1-2 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 1-0 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
