Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for Aldosivi had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.39%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest Aldosivi win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
