Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 35.14%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.14%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sarmiento in this match.
