Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 54.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 20.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.