Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 28.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.02) 
