Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for Les Herbiers had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Les Herbiers win was 1-0 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
0.31) 
-0.5) 
