Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 35.8%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.15%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (12.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Metz in this match.
-1.16) 
0.69) 
