Despite the gap in the league standings between these sides, Montpellier have fared well on their home patch this season and head into this match unbeaten in their last four on home soil. In contrast, Nice have struggled to find wins on the road of late and failed to score in three of their last four away league matches.
We are expecting a tight and tactical match here and feel that we may need penalties to find the winner in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 27.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nice would win this match.
-0.28) 
0.34) 
