Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Amiens had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Amiens win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.12) 
